Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
