Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
